EUR/GBP to gradually climb toward 0.90 next year – SocGen

Over the last year, EUR/GBP has averaged 0.87, trading roughly in a 0.85-0.90 range. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook.

EUR/GBP on the rise – buy gilts

Our forecast for 2024 looks for a gradual climb to 0.90, as the gap between UK MPC and ECB rates narrows and the UK economy marginally underperforms the Eurozone.

It’s not a thrilling prospect (a bearish consensus view of the UK means it would be more fun looking for positives in the outlook for Sterling).

Maybe we should just recommend gilts, which offer over 150 bps of yield pickup to Bunds at 10 years and 160 bps at 2 years.