EUR/GBP to trade at 0.81 in 12 months – Danske Bank

EUR/GBP rose sharply last week fuelled by the sell-off in European fixed income, which was triggered by the outlook of a fundamental change in fiscal spending in Germany, lending support to the broad EUR, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report. 

The cross is thus back to trading close to the 0.84 mark

"While fiscal worries in the UK are taking a back seat, for now, GBP FX tends to perform poorly when uncertainty is high and volatility is elevated. The cross is thus back to trading close to the 0.84 mark." 

"While we maintain our strategic bearish view on EUR/GBP fuelled by a hawkish BoE and the expectation of improving UK macro data, we stress that if the heightened volatility and euro-positive story continues, the move higher could extend further in the near-term." 

"This week, we look out for monthly UK GDP estimate for January, but more importantly further news regarding the fiscal spending plans in Germany, which are expected to be voted through parliament possibly already this week. We target the cross at 0.81 in 12M."