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25 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: AUD confined to a range - BBH
Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that AUD is confirmed to a range that was first established in the second half of 2011 and has been carving out a large triangle pattern.
Chandler sees that the upper end if drawn off the record high above $1.10 in July 2011, the Q1 high in 2012 near $1.0850 and the January 2013 high near $1.06 and is falling about a quarter cent a month. He adds that the lower end of the pattern is drawn off the late 2011 low just below $0.9400 and the 2012 low set in June below $0.9600. He finishes by writing, “The trend line comes in near $0.9800. We are more inclined to sell into gains toward the upper end of this triangle pattern. A convincing move above $1.037 could signal stronger retracement of the 3.5% loss seen this year. A move back into the $1.0450-$1.0500 area could provide the selling opportunity we anticipate.”
Chandler sees that the upper end if drawn off the record high above $1.10 in July 2011, the Q1 high in 2012 near $1.0850 and the January 2013 high near $1.06 and is falling about a quarter cent a month. He adds that the lower end of the pattern is drawn off the late 2011 low just below $0.9400 and the 2012 low set in June below $0.9600. He finishes by writing, “The trend line comes in near $0.9800. We are more inclined to sell into gains toward the upper end of this triangle pattern. A convincing move above $1.037 could signal stronger retracement of the 3.5% loss seen this year. A move back into the $1.0450-$1.0500 area could provide the selling opportunity we anticipate.”