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4 Sep 2015
US NFP Preview: Weaker numbers forecasted – Goldman Sachs
FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at Goldman Sachs, expect a slightly weaker number for August nonfarm payrolls and expects the US unemployment rate to decline to 5.2% levels.
Key Quotes
“We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 190k in August, below the consensus forecast of 218k and down from July’s 215k gain.”
“Worth noting that in recent years, the preliminary August payrolls figure has tended to be relatively soft in the initial release and has subsequently been revised upwards in following employment reports, with back revisions averaging +79k over the past five years.”
“Likewise, the consensus has a modest tendency to overestimate job growth in August, more so than in other months. For example, consensus forecasts have over predicted August job growth since 2010 by an average of 30k.”
“We expect the unemployment rate to decline to 5.2%, in line with consensus. Average hourly earnings for all employees are likely to increase 0.3% month over month in August.”
Key Quotes
“We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 190k in August, below the consensus forecast of 218k and down from July’s 215k gain.”
“Worth noting that in recent years, the preliminary August payrolls figure has tended to be relatively soft in the initial release and has subsequently been revised upwards in following employment reports, with back revisions averaging +79k over the past five years.”
“Likewise, the consensus has a modest tendency to overestimate job growth in August, more so than in other months. For example, consensus forecasts have over predicted August job growth since 2010 by an average of 30k.”
“We expect the unemployment rate to decline to 5.2%, in line with consensus. Average hourly earnings for all employees are likely to increase 0.3% month over month in August.”