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8 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Fed stress test results come back positive – Deutsche Bank
Overnight, the FED released its latest banking stress test results, which concluded that 17 out of 18 US bank holding companies would have a projected tier 1 common ratio above the minimum 5% under a "severely adverse scenario" (the exception was Ally Financial Inc.).
The severely adverse scenario included a real GDP decline of 5% by the end of 2013, unemployment at 12%, CPI decelerating to 1%, equity prices down by 50% and real estate prices down by 20%. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Attention will now turn to the Fed's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, due next Thursday, which will evaluate the banks' ability to make capital distributions such as dividend payments and stock repurchases.”
The severely adverse scenario included a real GDP decline of 5% by the end of 2013, unemployment at 12%, CPI decelerating to 1%, equity prices down by 50% and real estate prices down by 20%. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Attention will now turn to the Fed's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, due next Thursday, which will evaluate the banks' ability to make capital distributions such as dividend payments and stock repurchases.”