UK: Expect GDP to be unrevised at 0.3%q/q – Lloyds Bank

Today, UK data releases include the second estimate of Q1 GDP (Thu), which analysts at Lloyds Bank expect to be unrevised at 0.3%q/q, with overall growth expected to be weighed by slower consumer spending growth and a negative contribution from net trade.

Key Quotes

“It remains to be seen whether signals of firm export activity in business surveys will be reflected in the official figures in due course.”

“Subsequent outturns for industrial and construction output for the quarter have on aggregate disappointed relative to ONS assumptions. This release will also contain the first expenditure breakdown for the quarter. While consumer spending is likely to have been the main driver of growth in Q1, its contribution to growth is likely to be lower than in Q4 given the weakness of retail sales over the quarter. Meanwhile, net trade is expected to have been a drag on growth.”