US: Consumer sentiment and import prices data in focus today – Nomura

US dollar weakness over the past 12 months has yet to translate into firmly pushing up prices of imported consumer goods excluding autos, according to analysts at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“Import prices for this category fell 0.1% m-o-m in March after a sharp 0.6% increase in February while it remained within a steady range on a 12-month change basis. A sharp decline in petroleum prices during March held down overall import prices. Given the pickup in oil prices in April, headline import prices are likely to rebound during the month.”

“University of Michigan consumer sentiment: Various consumer sentiment surveys have recently sent mixed signals. In the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer survey for April, consumer sentiment deteriorated somewhat as a number of respondents spontaneously mentioned concern about US trade policy. However, the Conference Board’s consumer survey showed a pick-up in consumer optimism during April. Overall, the variation across surveys indicates that perhaps trade concerns will not weigh as much on consumer sentiment going forward. That said, we continue to see trade policy as an elevated risk. Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon ticked down 0.1pp to 2.7% in April and appear to have stabilized somewhat since January 2017 after a prolonged decline. The expected inflation rate over the next five years remained unchanged at 2.5%.”