UK Q2 GDP around 0.4% m/m in June - Barclays

The Barclays Research Team offers its insights on today’s UK second-quarter GDP monthly and quarterly figures that will drop in at 0830 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“We expect GDP to print +0.4% q/q in Q2 (preliminary release) as the economy recovers from Q1 disruptions and benefits from temporary positive factors. 

But initial trade figures also point to a drag from next exports that we have offset through inventories. 

The monthly series are expected to show GDP around 0.4% m/m in June supported by services (+0.3%m/m) and construction (+0.5%m/m), while production may come in neutral at best.“