US: Q1 GDP likely to print 2.6% - Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that today’s first look at Q1 GDP for the US will do nothing but highlight the DM/EM growth divergence.

Key Quotes

“Our economists expect a +2.6% qoq/saar reading which is above the market consensus of +2.3%. For what it’s worth the range of expectations for that consensus reading is from as low as +1.0% to as high at +2.9%, with the Atlanta Fed’s tracker at +2.7%. A reminder that Q4 came in at +2.2%.”

“The last piece of data which could have helped fine-tune today’s growth expectations – the preliminary March durable and capital goods orders data – came in above market. Core capex orders printed at +1.3% mom versus expectations for +0.2% while durable orders ex transport rose +0.4% mom (vs. +0.2% expected). Both series were also revised higher in prior months as well.”