CME Group FedWatch: 30% probability of rates staying unchanged in December

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing a 42.4% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December vs 39% last week. According to the tool, the probability of the target rate remaining unchanged in 2.25%-2.50% by December is only 30%. 

China's decision to hike tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods seems to be the reason behind this change as it makes the Fed more likely to respond to a possible economic slowdown in the U.S. by making a dovish shift in its policy outlook.