Wage gains have conflicting implications for Fed – Standard Chartered

Previewing Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report, "we will closely watch wage growth and labour participation trends in the US employment situation report this Friday," noted Standard Chartered analysts.

Key quotes

"We expect headline job gains to be on the weak side, but recommend looking through such weakness, as it would likely be due to adverse seasonal effects. Seasonal impact aside, ongoing strength in nonsupervisory wages could bode well for consumer spending in 2020."

"Given the conflicting impact that higher wages could have on growth, they would reinforce keeping monetary policy on hold near-term. Fed policy later in 2020 could depend on whether the positive impact of higher wages on consumer spending trumps their negative impact on corporate profits."

"Meanwhile, at least some members of the Fed Committee may see accelerating wage growth as evidence that the economy is heating up. This is an important risk to keep in mind, as market participants appear to be factoring in a low possibility of higher price pressures currently."