Oil: Setting the stage for a long-term bullish setup – Rabobank

Strategists at Rabobank expect spot Brent prices to remain anchored at $30/bbl in the near-term, however, the medium to longer-term setup is becoming increasingly bullish.

Key quotes

“We expect spot Brent prices to be anchored at $30/bbl until the glut of crude oil storage anchored offshore is worked off in the weeks and months ahead.”

“The worst price action is behind us now but the recovery will likely take some time to develop. Prices will struggle to run too far in the short-term as that will just attract barrels out of storage which will pressure spot prices back lower in a vicious cycle.”

“We expect the back of the curve to lead oil prices higher in the second half of this year as supply and demand eventually find balance

“We still favor buying deferred crude oil contracts to play the longer-term bullish fundamental story that is forming while simultaneously holding a short calendar spread position at the front end of the curve given the enormous amount of inventories that will need to be financed in the meantime.”