S&P 500: Bearish reversal day raises the risk of a correction lower – Credit Suisse

The S&P 500 Index has completed a bearish reversal day after again failing to hold above the beginning of the large February gap at 3260 and the risk for a swing lower within the broader range has grown sharply, with a move below 3198 seen marking a near-term top, per Credit Suisse.

Key quotes

“The S&P 500 has retested and rejected near-term resistance at 3279/81 and not only is the market yet again back below the lower end of its large February price gap at 3260, but yesterday saw a bearish ‘reversal day’ complete.” 

“With Nasdaq 100 still holding its bearish ‘reversal day’ from the beginning of last week and with growing signs of ‘risk-off’ elsewhere, the risk is seen building again for a retracement lower here. Key near-term support is seen at its 13-day average at 3215/11, with a break below 3200/3198 needed to confirm a near-term top. This would then open the door to a swing lower within the broader sideways range with support seen next at 3173, ahead of 3154 and then more importantly 3127.” 

“Resistance is seen at 3248 initially, above which can see a move back to 3266. Above 3279/81 though is needed to reassert an upward bias again, with the top of the February gap seen at 3328/38.”