USD/JPY: Intervention risk on a sharp move higher to test 145, but unlikely to alter the trend – OCBC

USD/JPY trades water around mid-143s. Economists at OCBC Bank expect a test of 145 to trigger intervention from Japanese authorities but it is unlikely to stop the pair’s current rally.

Intervention impact could be most felt within the first 48 hours

“We opined that the actual intervention may be conducted if there is another sharp move higher to test 145.”

“Intervention can impact the JPY and the impact could be most felt within the first 48 hours based on past observation. But intervention alone is not likely to alter the trend unless USD, UST yields turn lower or BoJ changes/tweaks policy.”